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Everything about Probability box
Concept in probability
A probability box is a characterization of an uncertain number consisting of both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties that is often used in risk analysis or quantitative uncertainty modeling where numerical calculations must be performed. Probability bounds analysis is used to make arithmetic and logical calculations with p-boxes. Wikipedia →
🧭 Start here: a 6-step reading path
- Read the overview: Probability boxA 5-minute orientation
- Skim a recent paper: What are the odds? Poor compliance with UK loot box probability disclosure industry self-regulationInfluential work since 2022
- Pick up a classic book: Present at a Hanging and Other Ghost StoriesThe most-reprinted book on the subject
- Read the landmark paper: Uncertainty Analysis Based on Probability Bounds (P‐Box) Approach in Probabilistic Safety AssessmentCited 111 times
- Go sideways: Probability bounds analysisA closely related topic
- Go sideways: Applications of p-boxes and probability bounds analysisA closely related topic
📖 Definitions
Noun A quantitative characterization of an imperfectly known probability distribution.
🏆 Landmark papers (most cited)
Uncertainty Analysis Based on Probability Bounds (P‐Box) Approach in Probabilistic Safety Assessment
Variable-fidelity probability of improvement method for efficient global optimization of expensive black-box problems
Hybrid reliability analysis with both random and probability-box variables
Aliasing black box adversarial attack with joint self-attention distribution and confidence probability
Gaming the system: suboptimal compliance with loot box probability disclosure regulations in China
A Chaos-Based Substitution Box (S-Box) Design with Improved Differential Approximation Probability (DP)
Success Probability of the Babai Estimators for Box-Constrained Integer Linear Models
Separating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties: Probabilistic sewer flooding evaluation using probability box
🆕 Influential since 2022
What are the odds? Poor compliance with UK loot box probability disclosure industry self-regulation
A probability box representation method for power flow analysis considering both interval and probabilistic uncertainties
Opening Pandora’s Loot Box: Weak Links Between Gambling and Loot Box Expenditure in China, and Player Opinions on Probability Disclosures and Pity-Timers
A new structural reliability analysis method under non-parameterized probability box variables
High-speed rolling bearing lubrication reliability analysis based on probability box model
📚 Books worth reading
Present at a Hanging and Other Ghost StoriesAmbrose Bierce · 1913
Time Series AnalysisGeorge E. P. Box, Gwilym M. Jenkins · 1970
Mathematical PuzzlesPeter Winkler · 2003
Saxon Math 8/7Stephen Hake · 2003
Response surfaces, mixtures, and ridge analysesGeorge E. P. Box, Norman R. Draper · 2006
A course in behavioral economicsErik Angner · 2012
Train Your Brain to Be a Math GeniusDr. Mike Goldsmith · 2012
The mathematics of Paul ErdösRonald L. Graham, Jaroslav Nešetřil · 1997
Ranked by number of editions on Open Library, a rough measure of how lasting a book is.
🔗 Related topics
- Probability bounds analysis Probability bounds analysis (PBA) is a collection of methods of uncertainty propagation for making qualitative and quantitative calculations in the face…
- Applications of p-boxes and probability bounds analysis P-boxes and probability bounds analysis have been used in many applications spanning many disciplines in engineering and environmental science, including:…
- Uncertainty quantification Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is the science of quantitative characterization and estimation of uncertainties in both computational and real world application…
- Bayesian network A Bayesian network (also known as a Bayes network, Bayes net, belief network, or decision network) is a probabilistic graphical model that represents a…
- Robust Bayesian analysis In statistics, robust Bayesian analysis, also called Bayesian sensitivity analysis, is a type of sensitivity analysis applied to the outcome from Bayesian…
- Credible interval In Bayesian statistics, a credible interval is an interval used to characterize a probability distribution. It is defined such that an unobserved parameter…
- False confidence theorem The false confidence theorem suggests that an analyst should not be willing to assign a high degree of belief to an assertion on the basis of low quality…
- Measurement uncertainty In metrology, measurement uncertainty is the expression of the statistical dispersion of the values attributed to a quantity measured on an interval or…