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Everything about Probability bounds analysis

Mathematical method of risk analysis

Probability bounds analysis (PBA) is a collection of methods of uncertainty propagation for making qualitative and quantitative calculations in the face of uncertainties of various kinds. It is used to project partial information about random variables and other quantities through mathematical expressions. For instance, it computes sure bounds on the distribution of a sum, product, or more complex function, given only sure bounds on the distributions of the inputs. Such bounds are called probability boxes, and constrain cumulative probability distributions. Wikipedia →

🧭 Start here: a 6-step reading path

  1. Read the overview: Probability bounds analysisA 5-minute orientation
  2. Skim a recent paper: An application of fault tree analysis for computing the bounds on system failure probability through qualitative data in intuitionistic fuzzy environmentInfluential work since 2022
  3. Pick up a classic book: The Riemann, Lebesgue and Generalized Riemann IntegralsThe most-reprinted book on the subject
  4. Read the landmark paper: Uncertainty Analysis Based on Probability Bounds (P‐Box) Approach in Probabilistic Safety AssessmentCited 111 times
  5. Go sideways: Probability boxA closely related topic
  6. Go sideways: Applications of p-boxes and probability bounds analysisA closely related topic

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🏆 Landmark papers (most cited)

🆕 Influential since 2022

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