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Everything about Probability of direction

Mathematical index used in Bayesian statistics

In Bayesian statistics, the probability of direction (pd) is a measure of effect existence representing the certainty with which an effect is positive or negative. This index is numerically similar to the frequentist p-value. Wikipedia →

🧭 Start here: a 6-step reading path

  1. Read the overview: Probability of directionA 5-minute orientation
  2. Skim a recent paper: Multi-hazard joint probability distribution model for wind speed, wind direction and rain intensityInfluential work since 2022
  3. Pick up a classic book: Little DorritThe most-reprinted book on the subject
  4. Read the landmark paper: Can quantum probability provide a new direction for cognitive modeling?Cited 361 times
  5. Go sideways: Lindley's paradoxA closely related topic
  6. Go sideways: Frequentist inferenceA closely related topic

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