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Everything about Bayesian model reduction

Mathematical method for quicker estimation of probable outcomes

Bayesian model reduction is a method for computing the evidence and posterior over the parameters of Bayesian models that differ in their priors. A full model is fitted to data using standard approaches. Hypotheses are then tested by defining one or more 'reduced' models with alternative priors, which usually – in the limit – switch off certain parameters. The evidence and parameters of the reduced models can then be computed from the evidence and estimated (posterior) parameters of the full model using Bayesian model reduction. If the priors and posteriors are normally distributed, then there is an analytic solution which can be computed rapidly. This has multiple scientific and engineering applications: these include scoring the evidence for large numbers of models very quickly and facilitating the estimation of hierarchical models. Wikipedia →

🧭 Start here: a 6-step reading path

  1. Read the overview: Bayesian model reductionA 5-minute orientation
  2. Skim a recent paper: A two-stage Bayesian model updating framework based on an iterative model reduction technique using modal responsesInfluential work since 2022
  3. Pick up a classic book: The Elements of Statistical LearningThe most-reprinted book on the subject
  4. Read the landmark paper: Bayesian model reduction and empirical Bayes for group (DCM) studiesCited 656 times
  5. Go sideways: Dynamic causal modelingA closely related topic
  6. Go sideways: Bayesian statisticsA closely related topic

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