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Everything about Forecasting

Making predictions with available data

Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. These forecasts can later be compared with actual outcomes. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results creating a variance actual analysis. Prediction is a similar but more general term. Forecasting might refer to specific formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgmental methods or the process of prediction and assessment of its accuracy. Usage can vary between areas of application: for example, in hydrology the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period. Wikipedia →

🧭 Start here: a 6-step reading path

  1. Read the overview: ForecastingA 5-minute orientation
  2. Skim a recent paper: Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?Influential work since 2022
  3. Pick up a classic book: Meteorology todayThe most-reprinted book on the subject
  4. Read the landmark paper: River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I — A discussion of principlesCited 19,910 times
  5. Go sideways: Demand forecastingA closely related topic
  6. Go sideways: Mean absolute scaled errorA closely related topic

📖 Definitions

Verb present participle and gerund of forecast

Noun A forecast or prediction.

🗂️ The subject at a glance

  1. Applications
  2. Forecasting as training, betting and futarchy
  3. Forecast improvements
  4. Categories of forecasting methods
  5. Forecasting accuracy
  6. Seasonality and cyclic behaviour
  7. Limitations

🏆 Landmark papers (most cited)

🆕 Influential since 2022

📚 Books worth reading

Ranked by number of editions on Open Library, a rough measure of how lasting a book is.

🔗 Related topics