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Everything about Expected value
Average value of a random variable
In probability theory, the expected value is a generalization of the weighted average. Provided that it is finite, the expected value can be interpreted as the long-run average of results from independent repetitions of the same random experiment, as formalized by the law of large numbers. Wikipedia →
🧭 Start here: a 6-step reading path
- Read the overview: Expected valueA 5-minute orientation
- Skim a recent paper: Expected goals in football: Improving model performance and demonstrating valueInfluential work since 2022
- Pick up a classic book: Medical selection of life risksThe most-reprinted book on the subject
- Read the landmark paper: On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on StocksCited 11,554 times
- Go sideways: Fatou's lemmaA closely related topic
- Go sideways: Jensen's inequalityA closely related topic
📖 Definitions
Noun The weighted average of outcome values, using probability as the weighting function.
🗂️ The subject at a glance
🏆 Landmark papers (most cited)
On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks
Expectancy–Value Theory of Achievement Motivation
Expected value of fuzzy variable and fuzzy expected value models
Distributed Neural Representation of Expected Value
Expected Value Operator of Random Fuzzy Variable and Random Fuzzy Expected Value Models
Expected Relationship Value
Quasi-Option Value and the Expected Value of Information
The expected value of the traceability information
🆕 Influential since 2022
Expected goals in football: Improving model performance and demonstrating value
Monitoring Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Forecasts
The 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV20): expected added value
Prelimbic cortex neural encoding dynamically tracks expected outcome value
Biceps Tenodesis Has Greater Expected Value Than Repair for Isolated Type II SLAP Tears: A Meta‐analysis and Expected‐Value Decision Analysis
📚 Books worth reading
Medical selection of life risksR. D. C. Brackenridge · 1977
Do hard thingsAlex Harris · 2008
On the EdgeNate Silver · 2024
Barriers to entry and strategic competitionP. A. Geroski · 1990
Erwartungen an die ZukunftElke Holst · 1994
Was bin ich wert?Jörn Klare · 2010- 📕Was bin ich wert?Jörn Klare · 2010
Bounds and characterizations of record statisticsM. Ahsanullah · 2005
Ranked by number of editions on Open Library, a rough measure of how lasting a book is.
🔗 Related topics
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- Conditional expectation In probability theory, the conditional expectation, conditional expected value, or conditional mean of a random variable is its expected value evaluated…
- Law of large numbers In probability theory, the law of large numbers is a mathematical law which states that the average of the results obtained from a large number of independent…
- Law of the unconscious statistician In probability theory and statistics, the law of the unconscious statistician, or LOTUS, is a theorem which expresses the expected value of a function…